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Motorcycle Forum / General / Racing / September 2008



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Question  on Stoner post-race quote

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just bob - 01 Sep 2008 16:22 GMT
"It is very disappointing for the weekend to end like this after showing
such a high level of performance in practice. Basically we took the decision
to put one lap on the race tyre in warm-up this morning to get it scrubbed
in: we've done it before and not had a problem but today I could feel from
the first lap that the grip wasn't right. After a few laps it started to
feel better and I was gaining confidence but it let go."

So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?
Jerry Houston - 01 Sep 2008 16:33 GMT
> "It is very disappointing for the weekend to end like this after showing
> such a high level of performance in practice. Basically we took the decision
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
> So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?

Seems to me he's done a "Dani Primadona" the last couple of races.
Blasted out front, got reckless, and pushed the limits too far on race
tires.  He knew going into that race that he was on a hard front and a
hard rear.

With those bikes, any of the riders, on any of the turns, could tuck the
front by going in too hot or not braking well.  That they don't, and can
stay upright for the whole race, indicates the level of skill they have.

We can all draw our own conclusions about the solo crashes that Pedrosa
and Stoner have had.
Champ - 01 Sep 2008 20:06 GMT
> "It is very disappointing for the weekend to end like this after showing
> such a high level of performance in practice. Basically we took the decision
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
> So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?

I really don't think so.  He'd done six laps on it before it let go.
I've started plenty of races on brand new (but hot) tyres without
issue.

--
Champ
RealMart - 02 Sep 2008 09:29 GMT
> > So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?
>
> I really don't think so.  He'd done six laps on it before it let go.

I wonder if he's fallen into the trap (a gravel trap?) of believing
his own hype?

He's consistently the fastest in every session beofre the race. He
"knows" he's quicker than everyone else.

He then pulls out an early lead in the race; all according to plan.

Then Rossi upsets the applecart by starting to reel him in a tenth or
two at a time. Stoner, "knowing" that he's the quickest man on the
track, tries to up his pace slightly; if Rossi can do those times,
then Stoner must be able to, because he "knows" he's faster.

Except he can't because - on race tyres, on that circuit and with a
full tank - he isn't.

Someone on the BBC coverage (Roger Burnett?) mentioned that they
thought Stoner didn't do enough race simulation runs during practice
and qualifying. See above re believing his own hype.
Julian Bond - 02 Sep 2008 09:48 GMT
RealMart <RedLegMedia@googlemail.com> Tue, 2 Sep 2008 01:29:28
>> > So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?
>>
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
>thought Stoner didn't do enough race simulation runs during practice
>and qualifying. See above re believing his own hype.

There's something else going on here as well. Or maybe not. Watching
Rossi's practice times, it seems that his fastest split moves around
from one session to the next. Like he's either working on setup to
optimise one split at a time, or mentally working on one split at a time
and not trying so hard in the others. This gives the impression that his
race pace is less than it actually is. I remember days in the past when
he'd really want pole and put together a scarily fast lap where he could
be seen to be trying. I don't feel like I've seen that for a while. Like
he's working just hard enough to get on the front row but not trying to
beat Stoner's pole time. All this feeds Stoner's belief that he is 0.5s
faster. But then when it comes to race time, Rossi matches him lap for
lap.

Stoner's strength is to go 10/10ths every time out and to race the
track, not other people. So he's probably doing the right thing to try
and lead from the front. As long as it works of course.

Roll on Indy.

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Champ - 02 Sep 2008 14:47 GMT
>There's something else going on here as well. Or maybe not. Watching
>Rossi's practice times, it seems that his fastest split moves around
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>faster. But then when it comes to race time, Rossi matches him lap for
>lap.

If that's true (not saying it's not, just that I haven't looked at the
splits myself) then it's bloody masterful!

>Stoner's strength is to go 10/10ths every time out and to race the
>track, not other people. So he's probably doing the right thing to try
>and lead from the front. As long as it works of course.

Of course.  We all know that bike racing is a huge head game -
confidence is almost everything.  Three crashes in a row could really
have screwed with Stoner's head.
Signature

Champ

Mark N - 02 Sep 2008 15:47 GMT
>> There's something else going on here as well. Or maybe not. Watching
>> Rossi's practice times, it seems that his fastest split moves around
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> If that's true (not saying it's not, just that I haven't looked at the
> splits myself) then it's bloody masterful!

Well, don't look too hard - at Misano in P3 Rossi was 0.7 second off
Stoner, and his fastest lap, his last of the session, included his best
section times in 3 of 4 sections. While Stoner's best section times were
on four separate laps, none of which were his fast lap, and of course
the margin would have been even greater had they both strung together
all their fastest section times on one lap. And in the one section he
wasn't faster in, in the QP he was no faster on race tires. Once again
Julian is spinning tales about how brilliant Rossi is, out-thinking his
competition at every turn, and yet again without any real foundation.

>> Stoner's strength is to go 10/10ths every time out and to race the
>> track, not other people. So he's probably doing the right thing to try
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> confidence is almost everything.  Three crashes in a row could really
> have screwed with Stoner's head.

We just had two near-identical races, both where Stoner split from the
start and quickly built a 3-second lead, and in the first one he very
slowly added to that until the lap before his crash, and in this one he
very slowly had that lead carved away, at about a tenth a lap. Then he
crashed on the sixth lap. So is it pressure from Rossi that has done it?
It sure doesn't seem likely, a 3-second lead is huge, and carving away
at a tenth or so a lap would have meant it would have taken nearly the
whole race for Rossi to catch Stoner.

I tend to think Casey felt he needed to win in order to have any chance
at the championship, so may have been pushing harder than he did last
year, when for much of the year he really didn't but it came so easily
anyway. And like in '06 when he did the same he lost the front on a
fairly regular basis. The guy's still a kid, so it's hard to be too
judgmental, but the last three races have certainly suggested a weakness
in Stoner when he has to push or fight, kind of the same thing we saw in
05-06. You can't win championships crashing out with 3-second leads...
Champ - 02 Sep 2008 17:35 GMT
>> Of course.  We all know that bike racing is a huge head game -
>> confidence is almost everything.  Three crashes in a row could really
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>at a tenth or so a lap would have meant it would have taken nearly the
>whole race for Rossi to catch Stoner.

Well, that's the thing, isn't it - Stoner didn't *need* to push, but
he crashed anyway (which suggests he was pushing).

>The guy's still a kid, so it's hard to be too
>judgmental, but the last three races have certainly suggested a weakness
>in Stoner when he has to push or fight, kind of the same thing we saw in
>05-06. You can't win championships crashing out with 3-second leads...

No kidding!  But as you says, he's still young.

Signature

Champ

bruce@hartweg.us - 02 Sep 2008 21:12 GMT
> On Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:48:11 -0700, Mark N

> >The guy's still a kid, so it's hard to be too
> >judgmental, but the last three races have certainly suggested a weakness
> >in Stoner when he has to push or fight, kind of the same thing we saw in
> >05-06. You can't win championships crashing out with 3-second leads...
>
> No kidding!  But as you says, he's still young.

i think this may be the the real answer. instead of thinking - why is
he crashing now
I tend to think it's amazing he didn't crash this much last year.

he always seemed to race really hard and rash - and often payed for
it
last year he very dramatically shifted results and was very consistent
not
only in winning but in staying upright. This year back to crashing. so
maybe it
isn't some big thing. not really choking, or being mentally beaten by
the goat,
maybe he just needs more maturing in general.

Bruce
Julian Bond - 02 Sep 2008 16:19 GMT
Champ <neal@champ.org.uk> Tue, 2 Sep 2008 14:47:35
>If that's true (not saying it's not, just that I haven't looked at the
>splits myself) then it's bloody masterful!

You want another one? Rossi did a lot of laps in practice, Stoner not so
many partly due to his hand problem. Stoner had to go with the hard
compound Bridgestone, because although they didn't do race distance they
did enough laps to find out it wouldn't last. Rossi had a medium. So
Stoner goes into the race knowing that he's on a front tyre with less
grip than Rossi's. Rossi matches him and then Stoner loses the front.

So did Rossi optimise the bike to make the softer tyre do the distance?
Did Stoner push a harder, less understood, tyre beyond its limits trying
to do lap times that weren't possible on that tyre?

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Champ - 02 Sep 2008 09:56 GMT
>> > So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?
>>
[quoted text clipped - 15 lines]
>Except he can't because - on race tyres, on that circuit and with a
>full tank - he isn't.

We should be careful from inferring too much from two incidents, but
yes, your analysis seems reasonable.

>Someone on the BBC coverage (Roger Burnett?) mentioned that they
>thought Stoner didn't do enough race simulation runs during practice
>and qualifying. See above re believing his own hype.

I agree - he always seems to fly out, do a fast lap, and then go back
to the box.

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Champ

just bob - 02 Sep 2008 16:38 GMT
I'm just trying to get an idea if he thought it was a bad idea to scrub in
the tire at all or if he thought he did not scrub it in enough?

To me, his quote was clear on this.

On Sep 1, 4:22 pm, "just bob" <kilby...@aol.com> wrote:
> "It is very disappointing for the weekend to end like this after showing
> such a high level of performance in practice. Basically we took the
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> So was the problem that he only scrubbed in for one lap?

I really don't think so.  He'd done six laps on it before it let go.
I've started plenty of races on brand new (but hot) tyres without
issue.

--
Champ
bsr3997@my-deja.com - 03 Sep 2008 03:09 GMT
> I'm just trying to get an idea if he thought it was a bad idea to scrub in
> the tire at all or if he thought he did not scrub it in enough?
>
> To me, his quote was clear on this.

IMO he is questioning if it should have been scrubed in at all.

Bruce Richmond

> On Sep 1, 4:22 pm, "just bob" <kilby...@aol.com> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> --
> Champ
just bob - 03 Sep 2008 05:13 GMT
Then my next question is is this something usually done, is it a Bridgestone
thing, or rider personal preference?

On Sep 2, 11:38 am, "just bob" <kilby...@aol.com> wrote:
> I'm just trying to get an idea if he thought it was a bad idea to scrub in
> the tire at all or if he thought he did not scrub it in enough?
>
> To me, his quote was clear on this.

IMO he is questioning if it should have been scrubed in at all.

Bruce Richmond

> "Champ" <nch...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 18 lines]
> --
> Champ
bsr3997@my-deja.com - 04 Sep 2008 00:59 GMT
> Then my next question is is this something usually done, is it a Bridgestone
> thing, or rider personal preference?

It is not just a Bridgestone thing.  Modern race tires do not need to
be scrubed in.  Some riders still like to scrub them in because that
is what they have always done and it just doesn't feel right going out
on shiny tires.  It makes no difference if you go right out and race
on them.  But if you let them cool down after getting them hot the
rubber will get harder.  That can be a good thing if it was a bit too
soft to start off with, but it is obviously not an exact science.

> <bsr3...@my-deja.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 34 lines]
>
> - Show quoted text -
Andrew - 03 Sep 2008 18:03 GMT
On Sep 2, 11:38 am, "just bob" <kilby...@aol.com> wrote:
> I'm just trying to get an idea if he thought it was a bad idea to scrub in
> the tire at all or if he thought he did not scrub it in enough?
>
> To me, his quote was clear on this.

IMO he is questioning if it should have been scrubed in at all.

Bruce Richmond

___

So then he crashes on lap 7.
Does it make a difference?

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bsr3997@my-deja.com - 04 Sep 2008 01:16 GMT
On Sep 3, 1:03 pm, "Andrew" <yogig.no.spamm.m.nos...@hotmail.com>
wrote:
> <bsr3...@my-deja.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 14 lines]
> So then he crashes on lap 7.
> Does it make a difference?

The surface is affected more than the core so the hardening would be
less noticable after a few laps.  Could be he thought the tires were
back to normal and they weren't.  IMO it is more likely he needs a
reason for the crash and this one is convenient.  At his level the
rider is constantly evaluating the grip for changes so it seems
unlikely that he would have pushed too far just because the tires
usually have more grip.  When I say he needs a reason I don't mean he
is trying to put the blame somewhere else, just that he can now tell
himself he knows what happen so it wont happen again.  Going really
fast requires head games sometimes.

Bruce
Champ - 04 Sep 2008 10:13 GMT
>IMO it is more likely he needs a
>reason for the crash and this one is convenient.  At his level the
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>himself he knows what happen so it wont happen again.  Going really
>fast requires head games sometimes.

This is exactly my take on it.
Signature

Champ

Chris Paine - 03 Sep 2008 19:37 GMT
> I'm just trying to get an idea if he thought it was a bad idea to scrub in
> the tire at all or if he thought he did not scrub it in enough?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/motorbikes/7594025.stm has
this:

Finally, explaining the crash that has virtually handed the title to
Rossi, Casey Stoner revealed that the team had decided to scrub in his
front tyre for the race by putting a couple of laps on it in the
morning warm-up.

"The cooling down and reheating process that took place naturally
after that affected the chemical balance of the tyre, particularly on
the right-hand side, which is the part that comes under most stress,"
explained Stoner.

Cheers,
--
Chris Paine <cmp@ist.co.uk>
"I'm happy, I'm happy, I'm happy ...
and I'll punch the man who says I'm not."
Champ - 03 Sep 2008 21:55 GMT
>> I'm just trying to get an idea if he thought it was a bad idea to scrub in
>> the tire at all or if he thought he did not scrub it in enough?
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
>the right-hand side, which is the part that comes under most stress,"
>explained Stoner.

Well, of course, that's possible, but if so it's a big mistake by a
world championship team, and throws up more questions than answers.
The whole point of 'scrubbing in' is to put the tyre through a heat
cycle.  If they'd wanted to avoid that, they could have left it in the
warmers the whole time.  So, the real question is - why did they scrub
it in?
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Champ

 
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