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So what will we hear at Laguna?

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Mark N - 20 Sep 2008 01:33 GMT
http://www.roadracingworld.com/news/article/?article=34277

If one assumes where there is smoke there is fire, then we should hear
some sort of OEM-DMG compromise at Laguna or shortly thereafter. If
you throw in what the promoters have been saying as well, then I think
that'll mean retention of at least some of the existing classes for at
least one more year; I don't see how DMG gets all the horses into the
corral without that concession.

So what would that look like? A SB class, of course, and that might be
any of the three possibilities - current AMA, '09 proposed AMA, or
WSB. WSB seems the least likely, given that the Euro OEMs that
obviously prefer that aren't even going to be racing in it. If this is
a one-year truce, then existing rules are most likely, and WSB almost
certain for 2010. But if they want to extend beyond next year, then
the proposed rules move to the front of the line, because they reduce
costs some and Yamaha will most likely want that (as the most
testicularly-challenged Japanese OEM).

Next up is SSport, which all of the Japanese OEMs must want, including
Yamaha. ASB/SStock is likely to be jettisoned, because DMG only has
proposed it as a way to bleed participation off of the hated FSB and
then to fill out the schedule with FSB dropped, and only Suzuki seems
to be supporting retention of SStock, which is logical given their
penetration and success currently.

FX is mostly Honda's baby, and that only stays if DMG concedes DSB,
which seems very unlikely to me. So a reasonable compromise would be
to run DSB under whatever rules DMG wants, also run SSport for the
Japanese OEMs, with supported teams also running in DSB. That leaves
the American and European OEMs out in the cold with their literbikes
if they don't run SB, but they have DSB still. And it gives DMG their
shot at making this class concept work.

I really don't see DMG conceding the dyno/scale limitations in DSB in
order to get the OEMs to run their 600s there, because it really ruins
their concept and it makes running the bigger stuff almost impossible.
And would the OEMs want to showcase their 600s agains 900-1000 twins?
So that route seems unlikely.

The really tough stuff starts to hit when they get to weekend
schedule, purse, television, spec tires, unobtainium, etc. SSport
would obviously have only one race, SB would need to be the feature to
get the OEMs to sign off, but DMG is unlikely to bury their DSB. So
maybe DSB and SB on Saturday and SB, DSB and SSp on Sunday, which is
the same five-race schedule as used now.

SB won't include any of the "approved parts list" stuff, of course,
but spec tires might just be a concession they'd make, particularly if
the partner ends up being Dunlop. SSp is likely the same, although
it's conceivable that a concession on homologated parts might be made,
in part to allow class crossover between SSp and DSB. DSB will have
all that spec racing crap, of course, and DMG may not be willing to
concede anything in order to encourage crossover, which they may not
really want anyway.

My bet is current SB and SSp rules with competitive tires, ASB/SSt and
FX dumped, DSB as already proposed, and doubleheaders for both SB and
DSB, biggest purse in DSB and none in SSp, all pro licenses, one year
only. Then they start all over again...
Will Hartung - 20 Sep 2008 05:24 GMT
I already heard that there was mumbling about removing the HP cap for
the 600's. So, you're thinking that they'll do this for a SSport clone,
but not DSB?

That will give us Moto-ST, DSB, SSport and SBike?

Honda will be SOL in the 600's (though obviously they did well this year
in SSport), but if they get an '08 or '09 SBike package, and '08/'09
SSport package and DMG get its DSB and ST -- that's sounds like a decent
compromise to me. There's certainly no room at all for an FX in the line
 up -- no one wants to see 3 600 classes.

Regards,

Will Hartung
Mark N - 24 Sep 2008 04:47 GMT
> I already heard that there was mumbling about removing the HP cap for
> the 600's. So, you're thinking that they'll do this for a SSport clone,
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> compromise to me. There's certainly no room at all for an FX in the line
>  up -- no one wants to see 3 600 classes.

What I was suggesting was something of a cross between what they might
have come up with had this actually been negotiated in a serious manner
this year and what might ultimately get settled over time. Right now it
seems rather likely that what they'll do is agree on a one-year
extension of the current structure with more change to happen in 2010.
But even that would likely include some immediate changes.

The problems with just extending the '08 package are numerous - there is
no 1200cc twins rule in SB, there are nothing but 600s in SSport, SStock
was supposed to be on the slab, and it doesn't include larger twins
either. Plus Daytona can't be all that wild about another year of FX in
the 200.

Use of the proposed '09 rules in SB would solve that class' problem.
Elimination of SStock seems inevitable, no one besides Suzuki (today)
really wants it and DMG was only using ASB as a thorn to stick into the
factories' side anyway. So dropping that takes care of the liters.

The middleweights is where it all gets sticky. Unless the deal is that
the current structure is retained verbatim, FX is gone. DSB is the one
real foundation of the DMG "vision", and I think people get it wrong
when they picture it as a middleweight class. Maybe that's the way it
would turn out in reality, but I don't think that's Rog Ed's concept;
he's focused on the bigger bikes as much as 600s, if not more. That's
why I figured the reasonable compromise would be to run both DSB and
some sort of 600 SSport/SStock class, novice or otherwise.

So what can the do to DSB to make it work as the sole middleweight
class? Obviously removing the dyno test on 600s isn't enough, and I
doubt that the factories would accept a weight minimum that required
them to ballast their 600s. And you can't really run all the eligible
machines against each other without some sort of limitations. Hell, you
can't even run an 848 against the 600s under SSport/SStock rules, that's
too much of a displacement disparity. So what you probably end up with
is something like the recent SB rules, balancing displacement and
cylinder differences with weight and tuning restrictions, plus the
jettisoning of some of the eligible bikes (probably the naked bikes).
Another way to look at this is to start from SSport or FX and then
figure out how to add more bikes.

What we do know here is what the OEMs can and want to run in such a
class, 600s somewhere between FIM SStock and AMA FX. What we don't know
is what's important to Edmondson and DMG at this point - are they still
largely wedded to DSB or have they awakened and smelled the coffee in
realityville? Where the middleweights end up really will be determined
by that, is there going to be a big fight and lots of rules
negotiations, or has DMG pretty much conceded their concept, or are they
going to put it off until another day by running two classes next year?

On MOTO-ST, I think the factories are going to put up a real fight
there, unless the agreed structure is just SB and SSp/DSB. If they stick
with the current four classes then there is no room, and even three gets
squeezed down. And there is no value to the Japanese OEMs in MOTO-ST,
they essentially have no hardware that's eligible. So DMG better be
ready to get that sh.t out of there, unless some promoter wants to run
it in the evening or something.

Regarding what the factories are willing to concede, I think it's a lot
beyond the two classes they need. Spec tires, obviously, that's all the
rage elsewhere. Spec fuel, sure. The approved parts list? Clearly it's
"no" in SB, but might be "yes" with middleweights. Then the big one -
DMG's ability to change rules at the drop of a hat in order to "enhance
competition". At this point I just don't see the OEMs living with that,
they really need a year of working together in order to establish any
minimal level of trust. So count on rigid rules for next year, at least
in the classes the Japanese care about.

Anyway, we may well end up with what was proposed for the AMA in '09
after all, but maybe with FX tweaked to look a bit more like DSB, to
make Edmondson and France happy(ier).

You should read Abrams' column in CN this week, on the changes coming
out of Indy. It's a good overview even if it doesn't include much detail
or class speculation. But it's refreshing to read something reasonably
positive that's grounded in reality, especially after being subject to
Ulrich's RRW and their one-sided, viral vindictiveness on a daily basis
of late.
Mark N - 25 Sep 2008 05:06 GMT
> You should read Abrams' column in CN this week, on the changes coming
> out of Indy. It's a good overview even if it doesn't include much detail
> or class speculation. But it's refreshing to read something reasonably
> positive that's grounded in reality, especially after being subject to
> Ulrich's RRW and their one-sided, viral vindictiveness on a daily basis
> of late.

In the continuing saga of John Ulrich and the American racing
series(es), today we add this one:

> http://www.roadracingworld.com/news/article/?article=34357

A number of interesting aspects to this, I think. First, it seems like a
reaction to the hated Abrams' overview last week, or maybe a
comprehension that his horrendously one-sided reporting on this story
was very close to losing his rag all credibility as a supposedly
unbiased news publication. Specifically, he pulls no punches on
Edmondson's grotesque behavior in the early days of this affair, when he
really established his reputation as arrogant and incompetent.

The obvious question now becomes, why did he hold his tongue for six
months, why did he fail to report any of this when it was happening? His
de facto mea culpa means very little now, except to confirm that
everyone has good reason to question his rag's reporting on this matter.

Then it's back to the same old anti-Blank stuff we've been reading for
the last month, and it's the same old selective reporting as well. He
does list concessions made by DMG during this process, but it's a very
incomplete picture. For instance, he says DMG removed the horsepower cap
on ASB and converted the class to a SSt clone. Fine, but that makes it
sound like a concession to the Japanese OEMs when it was nothing of the
sort - they had already killed off that class, and it's resurrection in
DMG's series was the immediate reaction to the first crack in the OEM
wall after DMG's absurd first attempt at a SB class in Literbike, that
being cheapskate Yamaha's knuckling under to DMG's 4-bike demands. Then
when real SB was put back on the table it remained, as a way of bleeding
off non-factory (and perhaps even factory) participation in the new FSB,
and it stuck all through the process, even after the end of FSB and the
OEM break - despite the fact that DMG never wanted a literbike class in
the first place. So did it stay as a concession to the turncoats, Yamaha
and Ducati, or just as another battle the others would have to fight,
another chip in the game?

He also lists the conversion of the DSB rules to include mod limitations
as if that was an OEM concession, but in fact that was a necessary
concession for the series if it was to have any hope of being
professional and not amateur - the previous rules made no sense above
the club level. He lists the demotion of DSB as another, but never
explains why the supposed premier class would get one race and a support
class would run twice. He also lists FSB getting a whole hour on
television (which is new to me), but doesn't mention that's an hour less
than it gets now, doesn't mention if DSB would get two (or more),
doesn't mention if that would be live, same-day, or further delayed.

A few other things he doesn't highlight:

 - "Local variances" language in the FSB rules.
 - The "Eligible Equipment List" remained in DSB and ASB.
 - Spec tires and fuel remained in DSB and ASB.
 - The power/weight formula and dyno-check stuff remained in DSB, the
only middleweight class.
 - The machine-specific TIF and ability to alter requirements of
specific machines on the fly remained in DSB.

Etc. So even though you have to give Ulrich credit for coming clean some
on Edmondson and his mistakes, it's right back to the same old slanted
picture. To think that Honda and Suzuki would simply forgive and forget
after the way this started, just because a handful of concessions were
given, with obvious problems remaining, and with real questions raised
about the basic competence and professionalism of the people running the
series they were to be investing millions of dollars in, seems very
unlikely. And at the same time Edmondson was pursuing his vendetta
against Mladin and Suzuki, further bringing into question the notion of
doing business with these people.

It's also interesting that Ulrich has laid off Harris and Suzuki to the
extent he has of late - maybe someone explained to him how he might have
to get in line down at his local dealership to pick up his GSX-Rs at
retail prices next year?

One can only guess what will happen next.
Julian Bond - 25 Sep 2008 07:28 GMT
I especially liked this bit.

--
“We don’t want that,” said American Honda Senior Vice President
Ray Blank, explaining that American Honda had no source for World
Superbikes because there were no factory bikes in World Superbike, that
American Honda had been self-developing Superbikes for years and
couldn’t build anything to World Superbike spec
--

What a load of old bull. Then he shouldn't be in Superbike.

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Mark N - 25 Sep 2008 07:48 GMT
> I especially liked this bit.

Or someone should accurately report what he actually said. When RRW says
something like this - "MIC prime mover Blank maintains a lead in the
madness index, if for no other reason than completely changing his
position at least three times with no reasonable explanation other than
maybe, 'I just don't like the motherf--ker'." - you have to wonder about
the objectivity of the reporter. Not that you needed anything more to
wonder about that in this case...
T3 - 25 Sep 2008 16:48 GMT
> Etc. So even though you have to give Ulrich credit for coming clean
> some on Edmondson and his mistakes, it's right back to the same old
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> his vendetta against Mladin and Suzuki, further bringing into question
> the notion of doing business with these people.

Forgive and forget?!?! Wow, the forget part they've got down pat, the
forgive, who gives a sh.t?
You're just incredible, or more accurately, uncredible. From everything
I've heard and know it's hard not to believe Blank's anything but a
thief and not just the regular grab it and run creep, a sneak thief,
the absolute worst kind. He (I'm told with Suzuki's help) orchestrated
the theft of Edmundson's property and got him removed from AMA and if
that wasn't bad/low enough, he then openly bragged that Roger couldn't
do anything about it! And to top it all off, as well as being the
really sad part, that left us(the AMA), not Honda/Zuki, holding the bag
when Roger did do something about it. Blank seems to exhibit's a couple
of the same quality's you do, he's a bullshit liar that doesn't care
about real racing, he's (and Honda) are only here to sell their sh.t 
and nothing more and I'm fairly certain that if your boi Bush hadn't
completely sacked our economy DMG would've stood firm on their eat sh.t 
and die attitude, though I'd imagine that's only been put on the back
burner for now..

As far as RRW goes, they are the *only publication* doing anything
beyond reprinting press releases and have become the de facto source of
unbiased Road-Racing info in this country and one only hopes they
someday see fit to branch out to other types of 2 wheeled racing, as CN
continues to wilt. Carruthers and Adams had better be paying attention,
though I imagine it's difficult with their heads so far up OEM's
a.ses...
Mark N - 25 Sep 2008 22:16 GMT
Troll3 wrote:

> Forgive and forget?!?! Wow, the forget part they've got down pat, the
> forgive, who gives a sh.t?

Translation: If it's not Daytona-related, f.ck 'em.

> You're just incredible, or more accurately, uncredible.

Translation: If you aren't for All Things Daytona, you have no
credibility.

> From everything
> I've heard and know... I'm told...

Translation: I read somewhere, or I just made it up...

> Blank seems to exhibit's a couple
> of the same quality's you do, he's a bullshit liar

Translation: You call me a liar, I'll call you a liar. Doesn't matter
that I am and you're not. Because I AM a liar.

> that doesn't care
> about real racing

Translation: Factory racing isn't real racing, it's just marketing.

> he's (and Honda) are only here to sell their sh.t
> and nothing more

Translation: DMG is in racing only because they love racers and they
love race fans. (Even though they want racers to race under very
dangerous conditions and they're destroying pretty much everything
that fans go to see.) Making money is only secondary, a mere byproduct
of their selflessness...

> and I'm fairly certain that if your boi Bush hadn't
> completely sacked our economy DMG would've stood firm on their eat sh.t
> and die attitude, though I'd imagine that's only been put on the back
> burner for now..

Translation: Once the economy gets better they're gonna screw
EVERYONE!

> As far as RRW goes, they are the *only publication* doing anything
> beyond reprinting press releases and have become the de facto source of
> unbiased Road-Racing info in this country

Translation: "Unbiased" means unquestionably pro-Daytona/France/DMG. I
know I used to say I was sceptical about anyone who has a stake in the
action and outcome, but once they started attacking the enemies of
DMG, they became a national treasure again. You know, like when they
used to shamelessly attack the AMA all the time...

> and one only hopes they
> someday see fit to branch out to other types of 2 wheeled racing, as CN
> continues to wilt. Carruthers and Adams had better be paying attention,
> though I imagine it's difficult with their heads so far up OEM's
> a.ses...

Translation: CN has committed the unforgivable sin of actually trying
to view the Japanese OEMs as having any value in racing beyond just
supplying bikes and financing. What the hell are they thinking??
Julian Bond - 20 Sep 2008 08:07 GMT
Mark N <menusbaum@earthlink.net> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 17:33:40
>Yamaha will most likely want that (as the most
>testicularly-challenged Japanese OEM).

What's up with Yamaha America? Did they spend all their marketing money
on Laguna?

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