Motorcycle Forum / General / Sportbikes / March 2006

Try Buells!
Realizing they were the only dealer within 50 miles that
could service it was enough to make me think twice.

I don't mind riding in the rain either...when it's 80+ degrees out and
I don't freeze my butt off in the process. Done it in Florida all the
time.

But rain at 40-50 degrees temperatures just does not feel all that
nice...

It's the melting snow that causes a lot of it, around here anyway. The
ground is still either too frozen or saturated to absorb much of the
water so most of it has to evaporate. And we all know, what goes
up....must come down.

--
Stephan
2003 Yamaha R6

The Ford is in the shop again, so I'll be riding the bike in the rain
until it is fixed.  3,000 miles ago, when a bearing in the drive train
went, it was just starting to get really cold and we had a lot of heavy
rain.  I have to admit, it is kinda fun when you have good tires.

- Kurt

In brief, polar cap melting alone can raise the sea levels 20'
or more... sudden cooling after that, due dust in the air from
a meteor strike or volcanic action, can predipate easily
another 40' of water ... for a40' to 60' total. thats
conservative.

I have not done all the calcs or research, but some of the
numbers are very high...they would need to be checked.

20' is the current projection without a sudden cooling after
the polar caps melt..  that means 10'  rise by 2051,,,, and 5'
rise by 2030,     and 3' rise in sea levels by 2021... 15
years from now... accompanied by storms the likes of which we
have never seen.

Re the stats:
the 20' figure was around when I was a kid, as a prediction,,,
it was well known and calculated from the volume of water in
the polar caps.

Govt spin
... then about 10 years ago until last week we got nothing but
bogus numbers...  6 inches etc... that was all spin by
government.    ludicrous logic, ignoriing the ice cap melt and
addressing only the thermal expansion of warmer ocean water
gives the 6" figure....

the duplicity was obvious.   The straight story will crash a
very high percentage of the most valuable real estate prices
world wide... bank security is mostly in real estate..the good
stuff is not in the high deserts either... is low elevation
ocean front property.

that news had to be supressed.

I bring this up because I think we will see a 3' rise within
15 years, maybe more.... why?

Because china and india will use massive amounts of foscil
fuels in that time frame, long before they can go nuclear for
their energy or to hydrogen...and the US can't change fast
enough to cut back...the surge will drive a faster melt than
is currently being put on the table.

This is happening fast enough that you can check your local
high tide tables each year and see to what degree this is
actually happening or not.. its not something anyone can hide.

If the trend is 2" a year, then in 10 years it will be 20"
almost 2'.   Thats how you can separate the smoke from whats
actually going on... if your hotel sits on the beach... it
could be worthless in 10 or 15 years....banks loan for 30
years or longer... these will not loan heavily into the
underwater real estate market.

There are entire cities world wide where the real estate
prices will drop 90% if the full impact of the polar melt is
known... even 100 years out.. in the financial markets thats
not long... no large corporation will eager to buy into
property that will be under water in 50 or 100 years.... thats
because even if it will not affect business short term, the
property will be saleable or useful as collateral.

thats why this issue has been lied about for so long.

Atmospheric humidity issues.
There is a chart used in the air conditioning business
developed by Willis Carrier in 1926 or earlier, called the
psychrometric chart.

that shows the percenage by weight of water in air at any
given temperature and relative humidity...  pressure and
temperature gradients in the atmosphere cause this to
precipate out.... rain in other words.    Most of the water
stays aloft.

No problem.
However with polar cap melt and oceans up 20'..., then even a
modest meteor strike of large vocanic event...would put dust
in the air blocking the solar rays and we will have another
sudden cooling...

How much?   for a wild guess lets say that we can wring out
1/16" water column from a 12" column of air... thats very
conservative...we can do that..

To find out how much water that is we say that atmosphere at
an average density of whatever... is 5 miles tall.   (air
liners fly at 5 to 7 miles, the air is plenty dense that
high...but lets be
conservative and say its 1 mile...

at 5,280 feet per mile...  we are going to assume a meteor
strike or volcano will put enough dust in the air to cool the
atmosphere enough on average to precipitate just a 1/32" of
water in the bottom of each column foot. .. thats a very
conservative amount of water

to get how much water that is per square foot of the earth
surface just multiply  (5,280' x 12 to get column inches),
then multiply by 0.0325" per inch of moisture   that will give
you inches of water, divide that by 12 to get back to feet,
and you get a hell of a lot of water...

thats just if we wring trace levels of water out of the lowest
1 mile layer of the atmosphere we get a lot of water (many
variables see link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_conversions_and_formulas_for_air_dispersion_
modeling...

another way of getting to a a more obvious number is to
visualize a mile high column of air, and assume that it
contains.  .001% by *volume water, water that will precipate
out due to cooling in any particular pressure temperature
range..

.001 x 5,280  =  5.28' of water in a one mile column of air,

Do the math yourself, the numbers will amaze  you... even the
very rough numbers indicate enough water to flood thousands of
the worlds cities under 100' elevation.

....in summary the figure will run between 20' and over 100 ft
column of water. per every square foot of the surface of the
earth... thats being ultra conservative, hard calcs at the
extremes go much higher.

The earth has always been very active with severe climate
changes,,, new studies are showing some of these happen in
months or a few short years... and those were without mankind
creating greenhouse gasses etc.   The next spike will be much
faster than previous ones, and you will be able to notice it
by looking at tide chart peaks as they change over time....
its a no bullshit deal that way.

If we get modest meteor strike or good sized volcanic
erruption about now, that will stop the global warming and
start a cooling cycle or as in the past, create an ice age.

These are random events... mankinds addition of green house
gas simply exacerbates one of the scenario's...warming... it
would save us though in the event of naturally caused
cooling.. the green house gasses would be good then.

So what does all this mean to a bike rider...it means ride
hearty... haul a.s... keep it clean...and eat sushi.. because
regardless there is not a damn thing we are going to be able
to do about any of it as things stand now...

well you can look at the tide tables and sell your sea level
property if the peak tide charts start to show a rising
trend... extrapolate accordingly... you will have to be at
least 10 or 20 years early to profit though..if you dont mind
screwing the buyer.

Other property is sinking at a couple of inches a year... in
florida and the gulf coast... due to ground water pumping...
add a 2" a year sea level increase, and the whole mess is a
deep salt water bogg.

That will be good for bass fishing though.  Most of us will
live to see much of this unfold.

You see, land at 20' elevation will be underwater in most
storms when the high tide tables go up 10' from current
levels...and thats all that counts... if yer hotel is sucking
mud all winter, thats bad for business.

Btw the scientology Hotel in clearwater florida and its huge
new (block square) super power building is at 20'
elevation...two blocks from the gulf.... in 30 or 40 years
storm surges will be washing through their lobby.

However much sooner, in a year or two, we will see cat 5 and
higher storms in the gulf. with storm surges over 40'... its
going to be nasty for this entire part of the US.

Phil Scott

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